UPDATED: 31 MAY 2026
The official October 2026 price cap hasn’t been announced yet — but Cornwall Insight forecasts it at ~£1,899/yr, a third consecutive quarterly rise. Here’s what that means for your bills and exactly what to do before the announcement in August.
Switch to Octopus — Get £50 Credit →Ofgem sets the energy price cap quarterly. The October–December 2026 cap has not been officially announced — Ofgem is expected to confirm it in late August 2026, approximately five weeks before it takes effect on 1 October.
Based on current wholesale gas and electricity market prices, Cornwall Insight — one of the UK’s leading energy consultancies — forecasts the October 2026 cap at approximately £1,899/yr for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. That is a further rise of around £49/yr (+3%) above July’s already elevated £1,850/yr level.
| Quarter | Price cap (typical dual fuel) | Change vs previous quarter | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| January–March 2026 | £1,738/yr | ↑ from Oct 2025 | Confirmed |
| April–June 2026 | £1,641/yr | ↓ −£97/yr (−6%) | Confirmed |
| July–September 2026 | £1,850/yr | ↑ +£209/yr (+13%) | Confirmed (Ofgem, 27 May 2026) |
| October–December 2026 | ~£1,899/yr (forecast) | ↑ +£49/yr (+3%) | Forecast only — official announcement ~Aug 2026 |
Put simply: the April 2026 dip was a brief reprieve. If the October forecast holds, typical household energy bills in the final quarter of 2026 will be £258/yr higher than they were in April.
The cap is driven primarily by wholesale gas prices, which feed into UK electricity prices. Several factors are keeping wholesale prices elevated heading into autumn 2026:
None of these factors are certain, which is why the forecast can shift significantly before August. Cornwall Insight updates its cap projections monthly.
If you’re on a standard variable tariff (including Flexible Octopus), your bills will track the cap and rise again from 1 October — on top of the July increase.
For a typical dual-fuel household using 11,500 kWh of gas and 2,700 kWh of electricity:
| Scenario | Annual cost | Monthly average |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 cap (what you paid Q2) | £1,641/yr | ~£136.75/month |
| July 2026 cap (from 1 July) | £1,850/yr | ~£154.17/month |
| October 2026 forecast cap | ~£1,899/yr | ~£158.25/month |
| Octopus 12M Fixed (current, ~£1,632/yr) | £1,632/yr | ~£136/month |
If you fix now at ~£1,632/yr, you’d pay around £267/yr less than the forecast October cap level — and your rate wouldn’t move for 12 months regardless of what Ofgem announces in August.
Switch to Octopus — Get £50 Credit →| Your situation | Best action now |
|---|---|
| EV owner | Switch to Octopus → apply for Intelligent Octopus Go (8p/kWh overnight). Beats any fixed deal for total cost. |
| Heat pump owner | Switch to Octopus → apply for Cosy Octopus. Three cheap windows daily — saves up to £389/yr. |
| Standard usage, want certainty | Consider Octopus 12M Fixed at ~£1,632/yr — below the July cap and the October forecast. |
| Standard usage, want flexibility | Stay variable but switch to Octopus for the £50 referral credit. Reassess when the October figure is confirmed in August. |
| Not yet with Octopus | Switch now via referral link — £50 credit on any tariff. You can choose fixed or flexible after switching. |
The £50 referral credit won’t eliminate rising bills — but it’s a genuine offset. The July 2026 rise costs a typical household roughly £17/month extra. The £50 credit covers approximately three months of that increase.
To claim it: click the referral link below, switch to Octopus (takes five minutes), and £50 credit lands on your account after your first Direct Debit — automatically, no code required. The person who shared the link also gets £50.
Switch to Octopus — Get £50 Before October Rises →For full context on all 2026 price cap changes and how to decide between fixing and staying flexible, see:
Not yet officially confirmed. Ofgem announces the October–December cap in late August 2026. Cornwall Insight currently forecasts approximately £1,899/yr for a typical dual-fuel household — a ~3% rise above July’s £1,850. This is a forecast only and will be updated as wholesale market conditions change.
Based on current forecasts, yes. Cornwall Insight projects the October 2026 cap at ~£1,899/yr, continuing the upward trend from July’s £1,850. However, these are analyst estimates — the official figure won’t be confirmed until late August, and wholesale markets could shift before then.
Ofgem typically announces the new cap around five weeks before the quarter starts. For October–December 2026, expect the announcement in the week of 25 August 2026. We’ll update this page as soon as the official figure is confirmed.
With October forecast to rise further, fixing now could make sense — especially since Octopus’s current 12M Fixed deal at ~£1,632/yr sits below both the July and forecast October cap levels. That’s a day-one saving with price certainty for 12 months. If you have an EV or heat pump, a smart tariff will likely beat the fixed deal on total cost. See our fixed vs flexible guide for a full breakdown.
Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar): £1,738/yr. Q2 2026 (Apr–Jun): £1,641/yr. Q3 2026 (Jul–Sep): £1,850/yr. Q4 2026 (Oct–Dec): forecast ~£1,899/yr. The April drop was brief — by October, bills could be around £258/yr above where they were in April.
Yes — as a partial offset. The £50 referral credit you get from switching via share.octopus.energy/brave-kiwi-22 covers roughly three months of the extra costs from the July price cap rise. It’s not a solution to rising bills, but it’s a real saving on top of switching to a supplier that prices at or below the Ofgem cap.