UPDATED: 9 OCTOBER 2026
Ofgem has confirmed the October 2026 cap at £1,723/yr, up 4% from 1 October — and almost all of it is gas. That changes the answer depending on how you heat your home. Here’s how to make the right call for your household.
Switch to Octopus and Get £50 Credit →Before deciding, it’s worth being clear on what each one actually means:
| Fixed tariff | Flexible tariff | |
|---|---|---|
| Unit rate | Locked in for the term (typically 12 or 24 months) | Moves each quarter with the Ofgem price cap |
| If prices rise | Protected — you pay the fixed rate | Your bill goes up |
| If prices fall | Stuck paying the fixed rate (may be above the cap) | Your bill comes down automatically |
| Exit fees | Usually £25–£50 to leave early | None — leave any time |
| Certainty | High — easier to budget | Low — bills change quarterly |
| Octopus equivalent | Octopus fixed tariffs, Intelligent Octopus Go (6-month) | Flexible Octopus, Agile Octopus |
The cap rose to £1,850/yr from 1 July 2026 on the old Ofgem consumption basis — a 13% jump from £1,641 in the April–June quarter. Ofgem then rebased its typical-consumption figures in July, so the October 2026 cap is quoted as £1,723/yr on the new basis (roughly £1,935 on the old methodology — the numbers aren’t directly comparable).
If you’re on a flexible tariff, bills rose in July and rose again slightly in October. The question now is what happens from January 2027 — that cap is announced in late November.
The fixed vs flexible debate assumes you’re on a standard tariff. But if you have an electric car, a heat pump, or solar panels, there’s a third category that beats both:
| Tariff | Who it’s for | Key benefit vs fixed/flexible |
|---|---|---|
| Intelligent Octopus Go | Electric car owners | Charge at 8p/kWh overnight vs ~24p standard — saves ~£417/yr for typical EV driver |
| Cosy Octopus | Heat pump & electric heating | 3 cheap daily windows for heating — saves up to £389/yr vs standard tariff |
| Octopus Flux | Solar panels + home battery (currently paused for new customers) | Import cheap overnight, export at peak rates — optimises solar self-sufficiency |
For eligible customers, these tariffs typically save significantly more than any fixed vs flexible differential — making the standard tariff decision largely irrelevant. If you haven’t checked whether you qualify, it’s worth doing before deciding.
There’s no universal answer, but here’s how I’d approach it:
| Your situation | Likely best move |
|---|---|
| EV owner or planning to get one | Switch to Octopus → apply for Intelligent Octopus Go. Beats fixed and flexible on cost. |
| Heat pump or electric heating | Switch to Octopus → apply for Cosy Octopus. Same logic — smart tariff wins. |
| Standard usage, tight budget, need certainty | Consider fixing for 12 months if you can find a rate at or below £1,850 cap level. |
| Standard usage, comfortable with bill fluctuation | Depends on your fuel. Gas heating: the October rise hits you, so price up a fix. All-electric: your bill moves under 1%, so flexibility costs you little. Flexible also avoids Octopus’s £50-per-fuel exit fee. |
| Planning to move house in next 12 months | Stay flexible — no exit fee risk, and you can switch tariff when you move. |
| Currently not with Octopus | Switch to Octopus via referral link regardless — £50 credit, then choose your tariff. |
Octopus does offer fixed-rate tariffs alongside its standard Flexible Octopus option. The exact rates available vary — Octopus adjusts them based on wholesale prices and demand. To see current fixed options, you’ll need to get a quote via the Octopus website or during the switching process.
Key points about Octopus fixed tariffs:
If you switch via my referral link, you’ll get £50 credit regardless of which Octopus tariff you end up on. You can compare the fixed options during the switch process and decide then.
Switch to Octopus and Get £50 Credit →The October cap is now confirmed at £1,723/yr from 1 October, and the rise is almost entirely gas. Gas heating: worth pricing up a fix, and comparing beyond Octopus — their fix was £1,699/yr as at 26 August, only about £24 under the cap, while Ofgem noted fixes at £100+ below the cap elsewhere. All-electric: your bill moves under 1%, so there is little to protect against. EV or heat pump: a smart tariff beats a fixed deal regardless. The £50 referral credit is available on any Octopus tariff.
A fixed tariff locks your unit rate in for a set period — you’re protected if prices rise but don’t benefit if they fall. A flexible tariff (like Flexible Octopus) tracks the Ofgem price cap each quarter — bills change when the cap changes. Fixed tariffs usually have exit fees; flexible tariffs don’t.
Flexible Octopus is a variable tariff — it tracks the Ofgem price cap and changes each quarter when the cap is updated. It has no exit fees and no minimum term. Octopus guarantees it will never be priced above the Ofgem cap.
Yes. From March 2026, Intelligent Octopus Go is a 6-month fixed-rate tariff with a £25 exit fee if you leave before the term ends. The overnight rate is 8p/kWh (11:30pm–5:30am). It’s the UK’s most popular EV tariff and typically saves EV drivers around £417/yr compared to a standard rate. More info: Intelligent Octopus Go review.
Confirmed by Ofgem on 26 August 2026: £1,723/yr from 1 October to 31 December, up £60 a year on the current £1,663. Analysts had forecast around £1,899 back in May — the difference came from the Government removing VAT on electricity and Ofgem rebasing its typical-consumption figures in July. See the full October cap breakdown.
Yes. The £50 referral credit is available to any new Octopus Energy customer regardless of which tariff they choose. Switch via share.octopus.energy/brave-kiwi-22 and you’ll receive £50 credit after your first Direct Debit — whether you end up on Flexible Octopus, a fixed deal, or a smart tariff.
They went up: the October cap is confirmed at £1,723/yr from 1 October, driven by wholesale gas rising 11% over the summer. What happens in January 2027 is unknown — Ofgem announces that in late November. Worth noting the VAT removal on electricity is currently legislated only to 31 March 2027. Stay flexible and you benefit automatically from any fall; fix and you are insulated from any further rise.